Economic indicators explained (with SA figures)

Interest rates, inflation, GDP and PMIs drive currencies and share prices. Here is what each indicator means, plus the latest South African numbers.

Live data · page reviewed 18 October 2026

South Africa at a glance

IndicatorLatestSource / date
Repo rate7.25%SARB, raised 25 bp on 23 September 2026
Prime lending rate10.75%Banks, from 24 September 2026
CPI inflation (headline)4.4% y/yStats SA, August 2026 (released 23 September)
SARB inflation target3%SARB
US Fed chairKevin WarshSince May 2026

Figures checked 18 October 2026. Check the economic calendar for the next releases.

What is an interest rate?

An interest rate is the price of borrowing money, expressed as a percentage per year. The repo rate is the rate at which the SARB lends to commercial banks; banks set the prime rate 3.5 percentage points above it, and home loans, car finance and overdrafts are priced off prime. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, slow spending and help bring inflation down. In forex, higher rates tend to attract foreign capital and support a currency.

What is inflation?

Inflation is the rate at which prices rise over time, measured by CPI. Moderate inflation is normal; high inflation erodes savings and forces central banks to raise rates.

What is GDP?

Gross domestic product is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period. GDP growth shows whether the economy is expanding. Stats SA publishes quarterly GDP about two to three months after each quarter ends.

What is a recession?

A recession is a significant, broad decline in economic activity. A common rule of thumb is two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP (a "technical recession"). In the US, the NBER officially dates recessions using a broader set of data.

What is PMI?

A Purchasing Managers' Index surveys company managers about orders, output, jobs and prices. A reading above 50 signals expansion; below 50 signals contraction. PMIs are released early each month, so traders use them as a timely signal of growth. South Africa's Absa PMI covers manufacturing.

What is NFP?

The US monthly jobs report; see NFP in forex.

Daily indicators

Traders also follow market-based indicators every day: bond yields (SA 10-year and US 10-year), the rand, the oil price, gold and the VIX volatility index on the stock market page.

Frequently asked questions

What is the current repo rate in South Africa?

7.25%, after the SARB raised it by 25 basis points on 23 September 2026. Prime is 10.75%.

What is the difference between the repo rate and prime?

The repo rate is what the SARB charges banks. Prime, the base rate banks charge their customers, is set 3.5 percentage points higher.

What does GDP mean?

Gross domestic product, the total value of everything an economy produces in a period.